Oh dear, Sensing Murder psychic, Deb Webber says she predicted the last Christchurch earthquake and another much worse is on the way. (Well not actually predicted in public words because she didnt want to frighten anyone) but in general terms she assures us she has known about this for over a year and in her interview with the Sunday Herald (6 March) she pointed out that had she put her prediction on facebook, mass hysteria would have broken out. I do need to assure Webber that the mass in hysteria would have had to get along without me because a few years ago her abilities were tested on an Australian TV channel by three people who separately had Deb make contact with dead relatives who did not and had not actually existed. More recently her reputation took a further knock when she got her her prediction wrong about where 2 year old Ainsling Symes body was going to be found in 2009. Some of us as a consequence had a slight inkling she was deluded.
In the case of her prediction about the Christchurch earthquake I am also curiously skeptical about predictions which are only announced after the event. However if she is right this time it could be serious. She claims that in February she saw New Zealand was to be split in half by an Earthquake. I suspect that means into two islands…like…for the sake of the discussion… North and South Islands! At least that shouldn’t cause mass hysteria!!
But dont just take her word for it. Ken Ring is saying the next big one is going to be 20 March. I trust everyone will note this date. Strangely before the first Christchurch quake he had no precise warning on record. In fact he failed to mention Christchurch at all. Without a doubt there will be some earthquake the 20 March as there is virtually everyday after a big earthquake, but a really big one on a precise date is another matter. If he is right that is serious, and possibly a coincidence, since there have been quite a few big quakes in the space of a few months. Incidentally Ken missed predicting the Boxing day quake but it is hard to be perfect. On the other hand if the next big one does not occur on his predicted date it is amost unfortunate scare tactic publicised to a very worried Christchurch population who have already had much anguish to deal with in recent days. The consequences are so serious if he is wrong for a false alarm he should at the very least be crossed off the ever diminishing list of psychics who can be trusted.
I say a diminishing group of successful psychics advisedly. The time for the end of the world was set by the International Association of psychics with an incredible majority of 92% of their number agreeing on an end-time date of late 1997 or early 1998. Furthermore in the 1997-JUL-29 issue of the Weekly World News carried a statement by a spokesperson of the International Association of Psychics Madame Vredeau detailing what was going to follow before the eventual complete demise of humankind in the year 2001.
The oceans would shrink (the jury is still out on that one but the global warmists assure me the sea level has in fact risen).
Satanic demons would appear in broad daylight. Charlie Sheen was a bit late for this one.
There would be widespread emotional and mental collapse. Well to be fair George W Bush was about to make his mark. The pestilence talked about by Madame Vredeau was not defined but I have at least one friend voting for George Dubya.
There was going to be an increase in crime and violence. OK they got that one. Massive starvation…. Yes, in places perhaps. But the bottom line is that we have passed the absolute deadline of 2001 and 92% of the membership of the International Psychics should have handed in their star charts, crystal balls and divining rods at that point.
Please note the poll conducted may well have not included Deb or Ken and even if it did they might well have survived the cut and been left in the remaining 8%.
I first encountered Ken Ring’s amazing ability to predict the weather one day when I picked up his weather prediction book in a Papakura bookshop. (I acknowledge that he sees what he does as a sort of science rather than the actions of a psychic). He was predicting fine weather for that day and I could see the rain falling outside. Ever since that day if there has been a particularly dramatic weather map and I happen to be in the near vicinity of a bookshop with time to spare I have checked out his weather map for the day with the one in the Newspaper. They never match. The skeptics did a study of Ken’s amazing ability and seemed to be puzzled that he missed a few really significant weather bombs. I understand from a few statistical tests (not commissionaed by Ken Ring, that he does slight worse than chance in terms of his forecasts cf Jim Renwick’s tests)
When it comes to earthquakes it is not so much that Ken Ring was incorrect in his latest prediction but rather that he makes rather a lot of such predictions which cover a fair part of every month. Even if he were correct, some earthquakes hardly figure at the surface even when quite big if they are say 5ok deep, so the predictions arent much help in avoiding damage. Everyday, Earthquakes occur somewhere round the ring of fire and there are a number of significant (ie measurable and which can be felt ) earthquakes somewhere in New Zealand every month. By painting a large target eg within a few days of the predicted date there should be some built-in success.
It seems to me that although I already knew that the moon creates a bulge in the Earths crust when it is overhead, but what is not able to be predicted is how much strain has built up along a shifting fault – and how much strain has already been released by previous tectonic events. I am surprised that Ken Ring knows how to work this out. Nor is it clear despite numerous measurements how this regular movement relates to earthquakes. Recent detailed studies don’t reveal anything like an exact match between the moon’s position and the earthquakes. Even the activity and position of a potentially active fault-line is hard to detect unless earthquakes pinpoint them. For Canterbury, with an extensive flood plain covering the deeper faults, such detail is much harder to map. Again this makes Ken’s predictions more amazing.
As animals are also supposed to know when Earthquakes are about to happen, I have asked the cat but she only opened one eye and gave me what could only be described as a distainful look. I will try again just before 20 March but frankly I am not holding out too much hope.